Learning Curve & Unit Cost Calculator
Wright's law: every doubling of cumulative production drops unit cost by a fixed percentage. Enter the first-unit cost and a curve slope to project unit cost, lot cost and cumulative average across a production run.
Inputs
Curve
85% is the common airframe default; 90–95% for low-labour or highly automated builds; 75–80% only where the work is very labour-intensive and repetitive. 100% means no learning at all.
Production
Result
At a 85% curve, unit 20 costs 495.40 against unit 10 at 582.82 — the doubling that defines the curve.
Need this as a full parametric cost estimate with WBS rollup, risk-adjusted ranges and a cost baseline?
Sign up →Frequently asked questions
What exactly does an "85% learning curve" mean?
Each time cumulative output doubles, unit cost falls to 85% of what it was. Unit 2 costs 85% of unit 1, unit 4 costs 85% of unit 2, unit 8 costs 85% of unit 4. It is not 15% off per unit — the improvement slows continuously, which is why the back half of a production run saves far less than programs assume.
Wright's law or Crawford's? They aren't the same.
This tool uses the unit formulation (Crawford): Tn = T₁·nb gives the cost of the nth unit directly. The cumulative average formulation (Wright) applies the same curve to the running average instead, and produces different numbers from identical inputs. Always state which one an estimate uses — mixing them is a common and expensive error in proposal review.
Why does cutting quantity hurt unit cost so much?
Because the cheap units are at the end. Halving a buy from 100 to 50 doesn't halve the cost — it removes the units that would have been produced furthest down the curve, so the average unit cost of what remains rises. This is the arithmetic behind almost every "quantity reduction caused a unit-cost breach" story in defense acquisition.
What does this tool NOT do?
Rate effects (production rate as a separate variable from cumulative quantity), breaks in production, learning-curve reset after a design change, inflation and then-year dollars, or risk-adjusted cost ranges. Those are in the Defense pack's cost models.
Upgrade for real cost estimating
- Parametric cost models with WBS rollup
- Rate effects and production-break penalties
- Monte Carlo cost risk ranges, not point estimates
- Cost baseline tracked against EVM actuals
- Estimates feeding the milestone review package